I've been a slacker when it comes to updating the blog and playing poker. I've been busy both with work and life. I was working a lot, went out of town from Thurs - Sun, and played a bunch of PCA steps when I had the chance to play poker. I haven't played any cash games since last Wednesday.
I was swamped on Monday and Tuesday. We had some company in town Monday night and after a few beers, I decided that I didn't have the right mindset to play cash games. I decided to just play the MATH $10 rebuy - no other tourneys or cash games. That turned out to be a pretty good decision even though I was up until 2 AM.
I'm going to try to get back to grinding out some cash game hands tonight. I have played less than 3k hands of the 25k 1/2nl hands.
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This is the first chance that I have had any time to follow up on the AK post, so here goes.
Hand 1
2/4 NL - 6 max
Just sat down at table. No reads/no data mined stats on players
Player 1 ($400)
Player 2 ($400)
Player 3 ($400)
Player 4 ($400) - Button
Player 5 ($400) - Small Blind
You ($400) - Big Blind
****Your Cards - AdKs******
Player 5 posts SB of $2
You post BB of $4
Player 1-3 folds
Button raises to $14
SB folds
Q1 - What do you do here?
RESULTS
Lucko - Reraise
Fuel55 - Reraise to $35
Gnome - Reraise
Me - Reraise to $35-$40
Every one was pretty much on the same page with this one. - Standard.
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Hand 2
Same Hand - No reads
2/4 NL - 6 max
Just sat down at table. No reads/no data mined stats on players
Player 1 ($400)
Player 2 ($400)
Player 3 ($400)
Player 4 ($400) - Button
Player 5 ($400) - Small Blind
You ($400) - Big Blind
****Your Cards - AdKs******
Player 5 posts SB of $2
You post BB of $4
Player 1-3 folds
Button raises to $14
SB raises to $48
Q2 - What do you do here?
RESULTS
Lucko - Reraise
Fuel55 - Jam or Fold (50/50)
Gnome - Fold
Me - Fold
If you raise, then you pretty much have to call a shove by the SB in my opinion.
I like getting my money in good if I'm getting it all in preflop in a cash game. The SB has shown that he at least has a pretty decent hand. With no reads you have to assume that the button will fold if you shove and the SB is calling with hands that dominate you or you are racing against. I don't think you can count on an unknown folding often enough to gain that much in fold equity here.
If I have a decent read after a lot of hands then I might play the hand completely different, but with no reads I'm folding most of the time.
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Hand 3
Same as Hand 1 - this time with stats.
The button is 14/10/1 (VP$P, PFR%, TAF over 10,000 mostly data mined hands) and has played fairly tight with the occasional button steal, but hasn't really gotten out of line.
Your stats for 60 hands at the table are 24/16/2. You have a fairly aggressive image and have 3 bet a few times without having to show down your hand.
Q3a - Whats your move?
Lucko - Reraise
Fuel55 - Fold
Gnome - Raise
Me - Raise
I think folding is way too tight here even against a nit. I am re-raising to probably $48. If he cold calls, I am firing on any flop and playing pretty cautiously after that.
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Let's say that you decide to raise to $48 and the button thinks for a few seconds and makes it $152.
Q3b - What is your move?
Lucko - Shove
Fuel55 - call and shove flop - pray he folds if we miss
Gnome - Fold
Me - Fold
A 14/10 play is pretty nitty. Unless I have a read/note that he 4 bets light, then I am folding here most of the time. I have flat called here in the past, but I think that is a -EV long term play. I can see the case for a shove, but against a nitty player I think it is again -EV long term. You are dominated a lot of the time, racing some of the time, and rarely ahead.
Q3C - Same hand - this time the button is 26/19/3. What is your move now?
Lucko - Shove
Fuel55 - call and shove flop - pray he folds if we miss
Gnome - Shove
Me - Shove
No brainer IMO. Button is so loose that you are usually way ahead of his range.
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I really screwed up the questions here - I should have put some more breaks in between hands.
Hand 4
2/4 NL - 6 max
Just sat down at table. No reads/no data mined stats on players
Player 1 ($400)
Player 2 ($400)
Player 3 ($400)
You ($400) - Button
Player 5 ($400) - Small Blind
Player 6($400) - Big Blind
****Your Cards - AdKs******
Player 5 posts SB of $2
You post BB of $4
Player 1-3 folds
You raise to $14
SB folds
BB Raises to $48
Q4a - What's your move?
Lucko - About $142 to go
Fuel55 - Flat Call
Gnome - Raise
Me - Raise to around $148 to $152
Players (even unknowns) defend seem to defend their blinds against button opening raising way too lightly at 2/4 (at least on FTP). I'm raising and getting all-in preflop if he re-raises. I can see the case for the flat call, but it really takes control of the hand away from you even with position.
I screwed this part up - should have drawn lines.
Same hand - The Big Blind is 14/10/1 (VP$P, PFR%, TAF over 1,000 mostly data mined hands) and has played fairly tight, but hasn't really gotten out of line.
Your stats for 60 hands at the table are 24/16/2. You have a fairly aggressive image and have 3 bet a few times without having to show down your hand.
Q4b - What is your move?
Q4c - Same hand - this time the button is 26/19/3. What is your move now?Lucko - About $142 to go
Fuel55 - Flat Call
Gnome - Raise
Me - Raise to around $148 to $152
This is obviously similar to 4a, but against a very loose player. Everyone was on the same page but Fuel. I don't understand a flat call against a guy this loose. He is going to bet big on any flop and you are in a tough spot if there is no Ace or King on the flop.
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I had a plan for this post when I posted it a few weeks ago. I felt like I was getting in against monsters way too often with AK, but after looking back over my pokertracker stats that isn't the case. It is more a case of selective memory. I'm actually way up with AK in pokertracker.
I do find that I wind up getting AI PF in bad shape with AK (ie - against nits) a lot more when I am running bad/ on a downswing.
I think the main theme of the AK post is that in most situations with Button vs. Blinds, it is+EV to get all-in preflop with AK against unknowns and loose players, but it needs to be played more cautiously against nitty TAGs.
****EDIT: Follow up to Lucko's comment:"Folding AK in Q2 is defintely a mistake.
Saying you fold cuz you like getting it in good is just not good analysis here imo. Its like me saying jam cuz you like money. Both don't mean anything.
What ranges would you give unknowns in both of these spots? Then give them both calling ranges.
If you do the math and still say its -ev to get it in here I would be surprised."
I was going to respond in the comments, but figured it would be an easier read in the post.
Let's look at this as if you shove (assuming if you 4 bet here then you would call a shove) and assume the Button is folding every time
If I give the
unknown SB a hand range of TT-AA, AKs, AKo, AQs, AQo, AJs then we are 43.8% vs 56.2%:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.162% 52.70% 03.47% 346496328 22785582.00 { TT+, AJs+ }
Hand 1: 43.838% 40.37% 03.47% 265457244 22785582.00 { AKo }
Expand his range to include 88 and 99 and we only improve to 44.1% vs 55.9%:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.904% 53.33% 02.57% 482171508 23258226.00 { 88+, AJs+ }
Hand 1: 44.096% 41.52% 02.57% 375408552 23258226.00 { AKo }
Expand to all pairs and it becomes 45% vs 55%:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.096% 53.57% 01.52% 880635420 25036464.00 { 22+, AJs+ }
Hand 1: 44.904% 43.38% 01.52% 713103492 25036464.00 { AKo }
I really think that his range is at best 88+, AJs+ and you could
assume a random unknown folds 88, 99, 1010, AJs in this spot. Calling JJ+, AQo+. So you are a 40.6% vs 59.3% underdog to his calling range.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.366% 54.89% 04.48% 259384716 21177768.00 { JJ+, AQs+ }
Hand 1: 40.634% 36.15% 04.48% 170855652 21177768.00 { AKo }
Based on Lucko's emailed calculation of him folding 47% for the above range, then our equity is as follows:
47% of the time he folds and we win $66
53% x 36.15% = 19% of the time we win $414
53% x 54.89% = 29% of the time we lose $400
53% x 8.96% = 5% of the time we tie = $0
47% time win +$66 = +$31.20
19% time win +414 = +$78.66
29% time lose -$396 = -$114.84
5% of the time we tie = $0
It looks like our expectation is -$4.98 - almost neutral EV based on my range.
*****2nd EDIT: Lucko sent a follow up email after I emailed him (see below)
I corrected the fold percentage in the above calculation
Lucko's email:
"lets use your range for now: 88-AA, AKs, AKo, AQs, AQo, AJs
88-TT, AQ, AJs fold to a jam. That is 27 hands that fold.
JJ-AA and AK call. That is 30 hands that call.
So given that range, he folds 47% of the time.
47% of the time we win 66
The 53% of the time he calls we are a 40% dog.
So we have 40% of $814 or $325. We put in $396 for a loss of $71.
So 53% of the time we lose $71.
.47 * $66 = $31 win
.53 * $71 = $37 loss
-$6 of equity.
Losing play stand alone based on that raising\calling range.
That doesn't include one suited connector, no KQ's, no pairs smaller than 88. That is a very tight range and we barely lose money. In most 6 max 2/4 games I have seen, people are reraising much wider than the range you gave. If you add just a few extra hands it becomes +EV standalone. What is your reraing range there from the SB? Is it that tight? Are you never reraising sc'ers there?
Also think about what your 4-betting range is here. Is it only AA\KK? How do you think your opponents ranges will adjust to you if that is your total 4-betting range here? How do you think there range will adjust if they know you have other hands here as well? Widing your range increases the equity of your range.
Stand alone, shoving is +EV against the majority of players I have seen. When you add in the value you give your big pairs by shoving, it becomes a very +EV play.
Remember, you aren't just playing AK here, you are playing your range. At least that is how I look at it.
At lower levels where less reraising is occuring and the games tend to be a little more passive, I think you can fold here. You are just going to be folding to 76s too much for my liking. "
Lucko's explanation sounds pretty solid and has got me rethinking my "Fold" position on Question 2. Re-raising is probably slightly +EV for this situation and definitely +EV long term for your image.
The funny thing is that I am quick to re-raise against a lot of opponents that I have history with.
I guess I tend to assume that an unknown opponent is a tight nit until I have some history against him which explains the difference in my thought process vs. Luckos.
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