O-Poker

Variance is a funny thing. It can be an easy scapegoat or a shiny horseshoe. It is a magical term that explains our winnning streaks and our losing streaks. Our stats tell us that we should make $X/hr, xBB/100 or xxROI% in sngs/tourneys. It is all there in pokertracker and our spreadsheets. Over the xxx,000 hands, I made xBB/100, so I should continue to make xBB/100. It all seems so simple. Anything that doesn't fit into this stats generated world has to be variance, right? Maybe not.

I had been running extemely well lately and kept waiting for it to slow down. I had a losing session last night. It was my first online losing night in 9 days. No problem. I am still up considerably more than should be expected based on previous pokertracker stats. My bad run last night was just the negative side of variance. That is what I kept telling myself last night. I had ups and downs at the tables last night and wound up down a little less than 1 full buy-in at NL cash games.

On my drive into work this morning I got to thinking a lot about how I played last night. I didn't play well. I only slept 4 hours the night before and was pretty tired. This is no excuse for my poor play, just one of the factors that helped feed it. I got sucked out on the river early in the night and I let it affect my play. I guess you could say playing poorly is one of the components of variance - but does it have to be? I don't think so.

Before the losses last night, I had been on fire over the last month. Was it just variance? I had a few great hands that held up. The key factors in my good run had more to do with how well I was playing. I was getting my money in with the best hand, creating big pots when I had a monster, making some calls/lay downs (calling a bluff/folding 2nd best hand) that I might not have made in the past, and bluffing at the right times. Of course, the win rate I was having was not sustainable, it was all just positive variance. Some of it might have been, but I think a lot of it had to do with how I was playing.

If we improve our games, we theoretically could be on the positive side of "variance" for an extended period, because our stats haven't caught up with our improved play. The same could be said for the negative side of variance. There could be some serious leaks in our game. Perhaps the stats are lower than they should be because something needs to be changed.

Whenever you are on a good or bad run, take the time to ask yourself, "What am I doing right/wrong?" Keep doing the things that you are doing right and do them more often. Stop doing the things that are hurting your game. Analyze your game and always try to make sure you are on the positive side of variance. Sometimes the best teachers are found in the mirror.

Variance isn't always as simple as good cards not holding up or getting hit by the deck.

cmitch