Poker Ramblings of cmitch

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OK. Yesterday's hand was pretty simple. I am ahead of most hands like overpairs (55/45) and only a small dog to a set (40%/60%). I didn't think that The Sweeper had a strong enough hand to get all in with, but cornellxc1 had shown obvious strength and I had to figure that his range was a set, overpair, or outside shot that he was on the nut flush draw.

Please, correct me in the comments if you see an error in my calcs. I think that I have his range correct, but welcome any thoughts to the contrary.
40% of his hands = overpair (55/45 favorite)
40% of his hands = set (40/60 dog)
10% of his hands = straight draw (prob smaller % but assuming 10% for calcs) (57/43 favorite)
10% of his hands = nut flush draw (36/64 dog)

40% x 55% = 22%
40% x 40% = 16%
10% x 57% = 5.7%
10% x 36% = 3.6%

Assuming the above is his range, I am about a 47/53 underdog - close to a coin flip.

There is $52 in the pot preflop plus assuming $30 of dead money in the pot from The Sweeper, so $82 before cornell's raise. I am working under the assumption that sweeper is folding and cornell will either call an all-in or bet enough on the turn to put me all in if I flat call. So, I am getting $431+$82 = $513 to $431 on money. I was definitely getting the right odds against his range and raised enough to commit myself/show that I was committed. I lost the race.

I think that the calculation also shows why the hand has to be played a little more cautiously when deep stacked as noted by several of the comments on my last post.

FullTiltPoker Game #3443703565: Table Tuscarora (6 max) - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:33:14 ET - 2007/09/02
Seat 1: joker514 ($150)
Seat 3: The Sweeper ($2,267.25)
Seat 4: cornellxc1 ($765.10)
Seat 5: gimmeurblinds ($119.10)
Seat 6: cmitch ($445.10)
joker514 posts the small blind of $2
The Sweeper posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to cmitch [8d 7d]
therouf adds $200
cornellxc1 raises to $14
gimmeurblinds folds
cmitch calls $14
joker514 has 15 seconds left to act
joker514 calls $12
The Sweeper calls $10
*** FLOP *** [9s Td 2d]
joker514 checks
The Sweeper bets $30
cornellxc1 has 15 seconds left to act
cornellxc1 raises to $100
cmitch raises to $300
joker514 folds
The Sweeper folds
cornellxc1 raises to $751.10, and is all in
cmitch calls $131.10, and is all in
cornellxc1 shows [2c 2s]
cmitch shows [8d 7d]
Uncalled bet of $320 returned to cornellxc1
*** TURN *** [9s Td 2d] [4c]
*** RIVER *** [9s Td 2d 4c] [8h]
cornellxc1 shows three of a kind, Twos
cmitch shows a pair of Eights
cornellxc1 wins the pot ($945.20) with three of a kind, Twos
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $948.20 | Rake $3
Board: [9s Td 2d 4c 8h]
Seat 1: joker514 (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 3: The Sweeper (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 4: cornellxc1 showed [2c 2s] and won ($945.20) with three of a kind, Twos
Seat 5: gimmeurblinds didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: cmitch (button) showed [8d 7d] and lost with a pair of Eights

I guess I shouldn't play 78 (suited or not) any more. The next hand took place at the same table earlier in the session.

The Sweeper (34/20/2.5 over 700+ hands) appears to be pretty loose. This is early in the session and most of the stats are mined.

FullTiltPoker Game #3442996262: Table Tuscarora (6 max) - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:21:49 ET - 2007/09/02
Seat 1: cornellxc1 ($32)
Seat 2: MagicRock ($735)
Seat 3: The Sweeper ($1,478.05)
Seat 4: jballer88 ($429.40)
Seat 5: Q1Tower ($424)
Seat 6: cmitch ($398)
cornellxc1 posts the small blind of $2
MagicRock has 5 seconds left to act
MagicRock posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to cmitch [8d 7h]
The Sweeper raises to $8
jballer88 folds
Q1Tower folds
cmitch calls $8 (forget about flat calling with 78o on the button - I'm sure the case could be made for folding preflop.)
cornellxc1 folds
MagicRock calls $4
*** FLOP *** [5h 6h 4h]
MagicRock checks
The Sweeper checks
cmitch bets $20
MagicRock folds
The Sweeper raises to $60
cmitch calls $40 (thoughts on the flat call here????)
*** TURN *** [5h 6h 4h] [Td]
The Sweeper has 15 seconds left to act
The Sweeper bets $120

Yuk. What to do now?

3 responses to "Hand Results and Another How Would You Play it?"

  1. Seems like he has an overpair and a flush draw. Some kind of draw. I dunno, doesn't seem like a flush draw, but I don't play at $2/4, so I don't know if this is how someone would play a flopped flush. I don't think I'm folding this hand, I guess I jam. Maybe that's too aggressive. Still, just calling doesn't seem right either.

    Mike Maloney

  2. So gross. Over pair and flush, set or made flush. I dont like a str8 there at all given that the rest of his money is going in on the river.


  3. it appears to me this guy is just playing big stack poker. 118-1 he flopped a flush. he's got a pair and a draw.