O-Poker

I've got an extremely busy day today, so this is going to be a short update. I'll try to save more hands for analysis over the next week.

I had a fun weekend. Weeeeeeeeee College Football!!! We went to the Gator's first home game and sat in some awesome seats - 17 rows up on the 45 yard line. Go Gators!!!!!!!!

I had a crazy up and down week thanks to getting sucked out on a few times and tilting off 2-3 buy-ins one night when I probably should have just gone to bed.

I had an interesting hand that I wanted some input on.

How would you play the following hand:

Not a lot of history on cornellxc1 (assume no read) and The Sweeper (34/20/2.5 over 700+ hands) appears to be pretty loose.

FullTiltPoker Game #3443703565: Table Tuscarora (6 max) - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:33:14 ET - 2007/09/02
Seat 1: joker514 ($150)
Seat 3: The Sweeper ($2,267.25)
Seat 4: cornellxc1 ($765.10)
Seat 5: gimmeurblinds ($119.10)
Seat 6: cmitch ($445.10)
joker514 posts the small blind of $2
The Sweeper posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to cmitch [8d 7d]
therouf adds $200
cornellxc1 raises to $14
gimmeurblinds folds
cmitch calls $14
joker514 has 15 seconds left to act
joker514 calls $12
The Sweeper calls $10
*** FLOP *** [9s Td 2d]
joker514 checks
The Sweeper bets $30
cornellxc1 has 15 seconds left to act
cornellxc1 raises to $100
cmitch ??????????

So what is your play here? Why? If you answer flat call, what do you do on later streets?

50K Hands Challenge
1/2nl
Hands Goal - 25,000 hands in 1 month; 5 ptbb/100 (stopped at 20k hands)
Hands Current - 20,101 hands; 1.75 ptbb/100
1/2nl current profit/loss = +$1,410

2/4nl
Hands Goal - 25,000 hands in 1 month; 5 ptbb/100
Hands Current - 12,945 hands; 2.28 ptbb/100 (should be higher - going to try to focus more this week)
2/4nl current profit/loss = +$2,361

Total current profit/loss = +$3,771

I'm going to make this a quick update. I haven't had time to go through all the hand histories, but will post a few.

I think a couple of people might be confused about the 50K Hands Challenge. It was always going to be a combination of 25k hands of 1/2nl and 25k hands of 2/4nl - not all 50k hands at 1/2.

I think that my poor results at 1/2nl were due to a combination of running pretty bad, trying to run over players, and getting a little bored with 1/2. I even started playing 6 tables at times which is something I have never been able to do comfortably.

With all that in mind, I decided to move on to 2/4nl 5k hands earlier than planned. I have always been most comfortable/profitable at 2/4 and was anxious to get back to my "regular" game.


http://www.pokerhand.org/?1414468 - Was hoping to c/r flop, turn was horrible, and the other guy folded to my bet when the nuts were on the board - gotta luv it.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1422769 - Bad read by me to suckout on Lucko. Sorry Lucko.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1413907 - Unlucky

50K Hands Challenge
1/2nl
Hands Goal - 25,000 hands in 1 month; 5 ptbb/100 (stopped at 20k hands)
Hands Current - 20,101 hands; 1.75 ptbb/100
1/2nl current profit/loss = +$1,410

2/4nl
Hands Goal - 25,000 hands in 1 month; 5 ptbb/100
Hands Current - 5,733 hands; 9.02 ptbb/100 (obviously running very good)
2/4nl current profit/loss = +$4,167

Total current profit/loss = +$5,577


OVERALL GRAPH TO DATE (8/1 - present)


GRAPH OF 2/4NL TO DATE (8/1 - present)


GRAPH OF 1/2NL TO DATE (8/1 - present)


I'll get into the detail of more of the hands on my next update.

I am close to finishing the first 25K hands of the 50K Hands Challenge at 1/2nl before moving on to 2/4nl. I don't know what to say about the last 9k hands since the last update. It has been a roller coaster. The graph of the last 9k hands shows how much variance there is in short handed cash games.

I went back through the hand histories for the big downswings in the graph and I could have probably saved about $650 by laying down a couple of marginal hands.

1. I got all in preflop with KK vs. AA against a player that was playing very tight against me but very aggressive against the rest of the players at the table. I was about $500 deep and he was around $300 deep. I couldn't really see him getting all-in preflop with AK based on how he had been playing against me. I think that it was one spot that you could make a case for folding KK preflop.

2. The 2nd hand that I could have laid down was AA in the BB hand. EP raiser, button calls. I raise it up substantially. Flop comes Qs10s5h. I lead out for about 80% of the pot. EP raiser jams. I call and lose to set of 10s. I was about $600 deep and he was $350 deep.

I should have probably laid down both of those hands, but hindsight is 20/20. Hopefully, I can avoid the same situations in the future.

As far as the rest of the big down dips go, let's just say I lost more than my fair share of hands where I got the money in as a huge favorite and ran KK into AA three times.

A few examples of some of the big hits:

1. I got all-in on the flop two times with top two pair vs. and overpair and then the board paired.

2. I got all-in on a dry flop after flopping a set. My opponent spiked a set with his overpair.

3. I got all-in on the flop with top set vs. an overpair. My opponent made runner runner straight.

I could go on and on but enough whining. I plan on kicking things up a notch for the next 6k hands.

50K Hands Challenge
1/2nl
Hands Goal - 25,000 hands in 1 month; 5 ptbb/100
Hands Current - 19,126 hands; 2.03 ptbb/100
Total current profit/loss = +$1,5557.45

The 1st graph (hands since last update) shows the variance involved in cash games and why you need to have a proper bankroll to weather the swings. (FWIW - my bankroll is in really good shape even after having to withdraw a decent amount for the kid's back to school stuff.)





Graph of all hands since the beginning of the challenge. The swing over the last 9k hands doesn't look nearly as brutal in the overall scheme of things.

"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness...."

I think that describes this week vs. last week pretty well. I got off to a rough start in the 50K Hands Challenge (click here for 50k hands details) thanks to running horribly. Patience pays off. This week, I think I ran normal, got in a ton of hands (for me) and played great (and won 13+ buy-ins). I lost a few pots were I was a big favorite, but probably not many more than would be expected. I ran a set into an overset when both me and my opponent were deep. None of this phased me this week. I was able to shake off the beats and move on without a second thought.

I was in a zone over the weekend. Things were clicking on all levels. I felt like I was making the right decisions most of the time - proper bet sizing, making tough laydowns, making tough calls when things seemed a little fishy, causing players to commit on draws when they have incredibly horrible odds, etc., etc.

I even decided to try to 6 table on my 17" laptop when I had no distractions. I probably played 2-3 hours while 6 tabling and was able to focus and play well. I have always had problems with more than 4 tables in the past.

Another thing that I did was make some adjustments for 1/2nl. A lot of the adjustments would be -EV at 2/4 or 5/10, but were clearly +EV at certain 1/2nl tables. I often found myself sitting at a table with a ton of calling stations. Raising and three betting didn't work well, so I found myself floating a ton and then shutting down if I missed. These guys would call you all the way down with 3rd pair, so when I hit I would keep betting hard. I, also, flat called a lot more in position instead of three betting and then tried to outplay opponents on the flop with position on them. I'll try to get into a few examples of the difference in play between 1/2 and 2/4 in the next few days.

50K Hands Challenge
1/2nl
Hands Goal - 25,000 hands in 1 month; 5 ptbb/100
Hands Current - 10,017 hands; 4.64 ptb/100
Total current profit/loss = +$1,857.20

I am on track with the number of hands and the ptbb/100 should increase from here. I was just shy of 10ptbb/100 for the hands since last week.

A few hands - I'll try to post more later in the week. There were several that I wanted input on but they kind of got lost in the mix while I was 6 tabling.

This hand is a good example of slowing down to keep the pot smaller and letting a player that likes to bluff keep betting into the pot. The preflop betting is standard. On the flop, I made a smaller bet to try to induce a big raise with a hand like AK or KQ (both well within his range). I didn't think that he had a flush draw because he had a raised the flop in the past with draw. I decided to check-call with the intention of getting a lot in on the river. If I re-raised him on the turn or lead out big, I was probably losing any action. The river was a scare card for me. A10 was definitely a possibility based on how he played the hand. I check called figuring that I was ahead. There was no reason to bet the river. If I bet, he was folding most hands that I beat and raising me with most hands that beat me. If I checked, he might bluff at the pot. I checked and he made an odd bet for him. He usually bet pot on the river with a hand that he thought would get paid off. He was bluffing with his gutshot. I think that slowing down and allowing him to control the pot paid off well here. (A case of knowing your opponent - against some other players this might have been an easy lay down.)
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1364910

Another example of letting an aggressive opponent bet your hand for you.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1364940

These two hands at the same table in the same session were the start of digging out of the hole from last week.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1364948 - Standard - KK holds up against JJ.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1364943 - I was priced in, never disguised my hand and still got paid off - cooler for the other guy.

Dem Quads Bitches!!!! Over re-raising for value. There is no way that I would make this size raise against a lot of opponents when this deep. It would be -EV. I had played the hand so weak on all streets that I didn't think he could put me on the a full house and his min raise on the river screamed incredible strength to me. I over shoved thinking that this guy would call the shove with a full house or an Ace or King high flush. I was shocked at the call, but didn't mind it. :)
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1364952

A Shot of me trying to 6 table - It is still a little mind numbing for me right now.


Graph - 50k Hands Challenge to date (since 8/1) The thing that I like best about the graph is that it looks like the graph of a good stock - higher highs and higher lows.


FTOPS

I wound up directly buying into FTOPS Event #3 - $216 PL Holdem. Nothing exciting happened and I busted out a couple of hours in with top two vs. a set.

I am looking forward to the FTOPS Event $7 -$1k 6 max. I satellited in a couple of weeks ago. This is the FTOPS event that I am the most excited about, especially now that I am getting back into the rhythm of 6 max games. It should be a tough field and the winner will have to get lucky/not unlucky, but it should be fun!!

Good Luck to everyone playing tonight.

I got off to a horrible start in my 50k hand challenge (down 4 buy-ins) thanks to running pretty horribly. I think that I need to play tighter in the $1/$2 NL games than I do in the $2/$4 games. There are a lot of players that will pay you off when you have the best hand, whether you have been playing tight or not. I have been running really horrible at $1/$2, but am confident that I can pick up the pace.

I have been trying to use good table selection, but wound up adding my name to a ton of waiting lists and then just joining the tables with open seats. I was able to follow a few bad players around.

The Good
There were a few bright spots despite the horrible start.

A good example of how following around a bad player can pay off. This guy called off the last of his stack drawing to 4 outs. This is the same player that couldn't lay down ANY hands in an earlier session and wound up sucking out on me a few times.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1334181

Standard - flopping a set vs. an overpair.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1334177


The Bad

I should have laid this hand down easily. I think frustration got the best of me here. This player was prone to calling just about any raise with any two and I had seen him shove a lot. Easy fold right? :)
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1333918

Unfortunate hand. I was trying to milk him on the turn, but saved money because he wouldn't have folded the turn and he way underbet the river.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1333893

I don't think that I could have laid this down - possibly against this particular player, but doubtful in a 6 max game. I would be interested to hear anyone's thoughts on this being an easy lay down.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1333911

The Ugly

This hand set the tone of the first few days (happened in first 200 hands of the challenge) - KK vs. JJ all in pre. Jack on Flop.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1333934

Top pair with flush draw and representing an overpair. This was one hand against the same player as the 1st hand in the Good category. I knew that he was incapable of folding and sure that I had the best hand on the turn.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1333921

Horrible play by small blind gets rewarded. I flop two pair in BB against his overpair. All the money goes in on the flop and the turn brings a set for him.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1333904

I hate short stacks - unfortunately they are all over the place in the 1/2 games.. Two hands were I got in as a dominant favorite against short stacks.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1333889
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1333885

I think that there were only a couple of hands that I should have played differently. I got my money in with the best hand most of the time and wound up down 4 buy-ins over almost 2,500 hands.

My sister-in-law took the kids to her house this weekend, so my wife and I were able to go out both Friday night and Saturday night - a rare treat. I cleaned out the garage on Sunday and did some work Sunday night. This all added up to not getting any as many hands as I had hoped. I plan on getting in a lot more this week.

I mentioned a few posts ago that I need a challenge to motivate myself to play cash games since they are more profitable than tourneys (for me at least). I was kicking around a few ideas - a monetary target, number of hands, specific ptbb/100 rate, etc. etc. I think that I finally settled on a challenge that will help me do a few things - put in a ton of hands (relatively), stay focused, remain at a specific level for a set amount of time, and prove that I can be profitable at different levels.

I am a part time player with a job that often requires me to work a lot of hours and I have 2 young kids. My poker playing time is basically at night after the kids go to sleep. The maximum number of tables that I can comfortably play is four. This all adds up to a monthly hand target that may seem small compared to a lot of players, but it is actually a ton of hands in a month for me.

So, on to the challenge. I want to achieve the following goals between now and the end of September (2 months):

1. Play 25k hands of 1/2nl 6 max in August.

2. Play 25k hands of 2/4nl 6 max in September.

3. Average over 5ptbb/100.

4. I will not move up in levels before I reach at least 25k hands played at each level, no matter how good I am doing.

5. MTTs - I will still play some mtts for a break from cash games, but won't play any tourney over $100 unless I satellite in.

I have done a couple of things to try to prepare for this challenge:

1. I haven't played much 1/2nl in a while, so I have been datamining quite a bit over the last week and will continue to do so.

2. I have been watching a ton of the cardrunners videos. It has helped to watch videos from all of the different pros and guest pros to see a lot of different points of view/how different people play similar situations. If you aren't a cardrunners member and you play cash games, you are missing out. Go signup now - you won't regret it.

I will probably start this Friday and try to get a ton of hands in this weekend. I don't anticipate the FTOPS getting in the way because I am probably only going to play 2-3 events.

I am doing this to prove to myself that I can beat each level. I will decide at the end of the September whether I will continue the challenge for 3/6, 5/10, etc.

I plan on posting updates on Mondays or Tuesdays.

**EDIT (in response to DP's comment; I'm sure a few others are wondering as well) :

He asked about me playing 25/50 a few months ago. It was actually 6 months ago - Feb. 25/50 was never my regular game - 5/10 was though. I took a few shots at 25/50 - finished down around $2k in the end. I went on a bad run in March/April at 5/10 and dropped back down to 2/4. 2/4NL has been the game that I have been able to consistently beat.

I spent a lot of time/bankroll in May and June trying to win my way to the WSOP without success. After that, I withdrew a decent amount of my bankroll and took it to Las Vegas. I did well in the cash games, but horrible in the mtts/super sats and wound up finishing up $800 on the trip (less than the total cost of the trip).

I do not want to make a large deposit back into my online poker accounts, so I am undertaking this challenge. I hope it accomplishes a few things:

1. Force me to play more cash games/less tourneys.
2. Keep me from jumping up stakes because I am playing/running well.
3. Rapidly build my online bankroll back up.
4. Prove to myself that I can maintain 5ptbb/100 at several different levels.

Thanks for the comment DP. I should have probably said all of this in my original post.