O-Poker

This is a follow up post to my last post with two AK hands against the same player.

Hand 1

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $211.75
UTG: $78.30
CO: $397.50
BTN: $251
SB: $79.65

Pre-Flop: K A dealt to Hero (BB) (AcKh - for those that can't see suits)

UTG raises to $6
CO folds
BTN calls $6
SB calls $5
Hero raises to $30 - Looks like a perfect squeeze - definitely callings any shoves
2 folds
SB calls $24 (leaving himself less than $50 behind)

Flop: ($72) 4 6 Q (2 Players) (all diamonds)

SB bets $49.65 and is All-In, - Insta-shoves; no hesitation
Hero ?????

This is an insta-call right? Can anyone make the case for folding here?

Most people said to fold. The reason that I posted it is because I felt like it was a very close decision and wasn't sure exactly what the right play was.

There is $72 in the pot before he shoves. He bets his last $50, so I have to call $50 to have a shot at winning $122. I need to win more than 29% of the time to call here (I think - correct me if I am wrong) to call here. I don't think he open shoves a flush, but there is a good chance he is open shoving every pair. I really felt like he had a middle pair and then went nutso when the flop came all diamonds.

I called, which looks like was incorrect based on my above assumption. According to pokerstove, I only hav 16% equity against any pair.

If I increase his range to any pair + any broadway hand then I am 35% to win, but I think this range is way to liberal.

He had 5c5d, so I only had a 15% chance of winning the hand and missed. Oh well, live and learn.


HAND 2
Against the same player as hand 1. He had built his stack up but didn't leave the table. I had only seen him over shove 3 times (other than the hand above) and 2 times he showed up with the nuts or very close to it. I really had the impression that once he built up his stack he was playing very scared. He would limp preflop almost every hand and I would raise with position with atc and follow it up with a c-bet. He folded whenever he missed and just called c-bets with hands like top pair, top kicker.

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): $318
BB: $226.90
UTG: $209.15
CO: $495
BTN: $208.95

Pre-Flop: A K dealt to Hero (SB) (AhKd)

2 folds
BTN calls $2
Hero raises to $12
BTN calls $10

Flop: ($26) Q T K (2 Players) (KsQdTd)
Hero bets $16
BTN raises to $196.95 and is All-In
Hero has requested time
Hero?????

Given my read on the player, what do you do here?

One thing that I forgot to mention was that the guy didn't like to fold anything preflop. I'm sure this would open up his range more than the above description implies.

Most people said to fold and look for a better spot against this guy. I used up all of my time bank and finally folded. Based on the way the guy was playing, I think that I am rarely ahead. If I am ahead it is only my a little bit. The only worse hands he is shoving are AdX, KdX, Jx type hands.

He tried to convice me that he had K5, but I really don't believe him. My analysis was the same as everyone else's, there would definitely be better spots against this guy.

New question

Same as Hand #2, but the villain is super duper aggro and you have notes on him that he over shoves most draws and big hands on draw heavy boards, is it still an easy fold? or do you call and gamble against that type of player?