Don't be shocked, but I am putting up a post with some actual poker content.
I don't have much history with UTG+2. I think I probably had around 30-40 hands on him. He had played very tight (something like 10/8/fairly high agg factor - but doesn't mean much with the sample) and we had only been involved in one pot a couple of orbits earlier where I was the button and he was the BB. He raised my flop c-bet and I folded. Without any more reads and based on how tight he seemed to be playing over a small sample, I would assume he plays fairly straight forward until I have reason to believe otherwise.
My thought process on the flop. I make a standard c-bet. I would expect him to raise a set, an over pair or two pair since the flop is pretty scary. My guess for his range with something like AJ, AQ, AK, KQ, AT, AsXs, TT, 99.
1. Once the river hits, what is the best way to maximize value/minimize loss?
A. Lead into the pot again. If so, for how much? What do you do if he shoves over your raise?
B. Check/Call to give him the opputurnity to bet his missed draws or worse one pair hand.
C. Check/Raise. Why?
D. Something else that I haven't thought of.
2. Is there ever a reason to check this turn against a really tight player that called an UTG open and then called the flop bet?
Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
BTN: $184.55
SB: $200.00
BB: $43.00
Hero (UTG): $208.00
UTG+1: $339.30
UTG+2: $482.80
MP1: $41.75
MP2: $258.90
CO: $43.50
Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is UTG with Ac Qd
Hero raises to $7
1 fold
UTG+2 calls $7
6 folds
Flop: ($17.00) Qs Js 8d (2 players)
Hero bets $12
UTG+2 calls $12
Turn: ($41.00) 6h (2 players)
Hero bets $30
UTG+2 calls $30
River: ($101.00) 2d (2 players)
Posts
Yuck, Full Ring. WTF?
What kind of hands to nit's call an UTG open with? You think he'd call PF with a suited connector like QJ or T9? Pocket pairs? Probably. But if he had 88 or JJ, don't you think he'd raise the flop with all those draws out there?
So I don't put him on a set. Maybe he had AT of spades? Hell if I know.
My default in these spots is to Bet/fold the river. Probably half pot or so. Maybe even less. Unless he is really good, he only will raise with the nuts. And he probably calls with most of his other hands (some of which you beat)
PokerFool
12:05 PM
I think here is a good situation for a blocker bet. A bet made to reduce your loss with a marginal holding. Your AQ is obviously questionable, however, your opponent has showed passive play the entire way. I think the 2d river is a very safe card. If he was drawing to a flush or straight, it clearly didn't help.
Typically a good block bet is no more then 1/4 of the pot. What your accomplishing is setting the price on the river, giving yourself a less difficult situation.
If he has a hand like AQ, KQ and you check, he will more then likely place a 1/2 pot to full pot bet here, which will put you in a very tough descision in which you will more then likely have to call. However, by betting a 1/4 pot first, it takes the action away from him and he will be more inclined to simply call. ( You set the price ). If he raises, well, then you can easily get away.
-drawflush.com
Josh
12:29 PM
lol @ 1/4 blocker bet after the 2d on the river. Dont do that
I think i am leaning toward check just juuusssst barely over normal bet with no read of the player. Your stack size puts you in a stupid position if he comes over the top, and i dont think you are getting value by any hand he could possibly have other than KQ and maaaybe Q10. There are however, lots of hands that he will fold to a bet with that he may take a stab at if you check
Anonymous
6:12 PM
oops meant to say check call, obviously
Anonymous
6:12 PM
Please, explain yourself, i completely disgagree.
Josh
12:44 AM
If your guess of his range is accurate (AJ, AQ, AK, KQ, AT, AsXs, TT, 99), then your hand is the nuts.
How sure are you of that range?
If that range is correct, you have a lot of options:
_ Small value bet.
_ Check-call to induce a bluff.
_ Overbet all-in, turning your hand into a bluff to get villain off a chop.
As for question No. 2, why would you ever check the turn when you have the best hand?
Gnome
1:38 AM
DrawFlush the hands/commentary in your blog are reason enough to not think your advice is very good
Anonymous
3:15 PM
Given the way you describe him, I doubt he'll bluff you on the river if you check, but I'd probably make a value bet/blocking bet anyway. I think he's on a draw of some kind, but if he's not, you might get paid off against QK, and if he is, I doubt he'll bluff raise. If he does push after your bet, I probably fold, though I can't put him on a hand that he would do that with.
Unknown
8:37 PM
I'm assuming that in most of these guys' minds, blocker bet = value bet? I think it's a close call between check call and value betting. He's showing no indication of strength on a draw heavy board against a guy who led out twice so I'm gonna discount a set or two pair here. If he has that, he just plays that waaaay too weird. He could also have like KK and be playing it extremely weird (but I've seen some weird shit at 1-2). But, more often than not, you're ahead here, I think.
Value bet sounds ok because he could easily be calling here with like KQ or AJ or maybe even KJ. Of course, if you check, he might try to bluff his missed draws but I think I would want to save that for when I know that a player is capable of doing that. There are plenty of players that will check behind so check/call plan might be losing value.
As for the turn... um, what? I will never check here.
Alan aka RecessRampage
12:54 AM
Anonymous, your comments are unconstructive. The whole point of these posts are to disect, discuss and theorize how you might or might not play a hand. I'm not sure I see the point in stabbing at me. I asked for an explanation to your approach and you degrade me? I think you have a little more work to do then me.
Maybe you should do some research on 'defensive play'.
Regards.
Josh.
Josh
1:07 PM
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8:23 PM