Poker Ramblings of cmitch

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I haven't played too many MTTs lately and was wondering if the MP's shove over my short stack raise is a +EV shove. I'm curious (not because I lost the hand) because I have been in the same situation several times before in both MTTs and SNGs and am not sure where the cutoff line for hands would be.

Tourney - FTP $50/$50k - 12 players left
Me - 6 BBs after losing a decent size pot about 6 hands earlier (not to MP); I have been active, but not overly active. I don't think that I have shoved from SB to MP's BB or raised his BB very often since we hadn't been at the same table for very long.

MP - 15 BBs remaining. If he shoves and loses to me it leaves him with around 8.5 BBs.

CO - Has been playing fairly LAGgy with the big stack and has called some shoves with a fairly wide range of hands. I would say he is calling MP's shove with any pair/ATo+/AXs.

SB/BB - would both have a very tight range for calling his shove.

So, the question is - Is MP's shove a +EV shove considering he is probably sitting around 6th or 7th with 12 players remaining? (payouts for 10-12 is $720; 9th - $923; 1st - $11k; 2nd $7k; 3rd - $4.8k; etc)

Full Tilt Poker, NL Hold'em Tournament, 5,000/10,000 Blinds, 1,000 Ante, 6 Players - Hand History Converter

MP: 149,371
CO: 453,614
BTN: 24,813
SB: 343,550
BB: 155,638
Hero (UTG): 60,306

Pre-Flop: (21,000) A 6 dealt to Hero (UTG)

Hero raises to 59,306 and is All-In
, MP raises to 148,371 and is All-In, 4 folds

Flop: (139,612) 4 5 9 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Turn: (139,612) 6 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: (139,612) K (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: 139,612 Pot

MP showed T K (a flush, King high) and WON 139,612 (+79,306 NET)
Hero showed A 6 (a pair of Sixes) and LOST (-60,306 NET)

5 responses to "MTT Late Stage Question"

  1. i think it's marginal, but i've seen iso shoves w/ much worse. he prob figures he is ahead of your utg 6 bb range (it's not like you blinded down to 6bbs waiting for a premium), but he obv needs to worry about the three remaining (button doesn't really matter). i think it is somewhat read dependent, how active he's been etc. overall i don't think it's terrible, but i also tend to get over aggressive sometimes in spots like this. (every effing time i iso raise something like A8cc from lp on a shortie shove i seem to run into a huge hand in the blinds).

    i'd have to run numbers to see whether it's a truly +ev shove cause i have no idea -- brue?

    also, i wouldn't be looking at payouts for 10-12 etc if i'm him and don't really think they matter too much. he's obv hoping to chip up v. a shortie he feels he may be ahead of or only slightly behind.


  2. According to pokerstove, he has 59.739% equity if he is putting you on ATC, it is 44.612% equity if he he putting you on top 25% hand. My first impulse was that this was a -EV, however now I might think otherwise.


  3. If I am villian I am putting you on a wide range maybe 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q8s+,JTs,T8s+,97s+,86s+,76s,65s,54s,A2o+,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o,98o
    I then put the players to act behind on an average range of 88+,AJs+,AQo+
    If these ranges are close he only needs 42% equity against your range to be profitable and he has almost 48% against that range. With these ranges his net from reshoving is 8K


  4. Sorry I copied and pasted range and it cut part of it off


  5. marginal shove but i dont hate it