O-Poker

I think that my last post about when/how often to cont. bet was probably a product of bubbling a few SNGs, especially one where I had a pretty big chip lead with 5 players left.

I wanted to get some advice for a few hands in a particular SNG. I haven't run any ICM or pokerstove calcs yet on these hands. This is different from a lot of SNG/MTT situations because we are 3 handed and the top 2 win a ticket to the next level.

Background

• Pokerstars WSOP Step 4 SNG ($215)

• Awards 2 seats to Step 5 ($700)/3rd place is a replay of Step 4 ($215)

• I played pretty tight straight forward poker for the first few levels, but had been raising a ton once we were down to 4-5 people. Based on my play, the other two guys have to figure that I am raising with about top 50% on the button.

• They were both usually either re-raising or folding preflop. Seat 1 was open shoving a ton. Seat 7 was a good player that was playing pretty solid poker.

Hand 1

PokerStars Game #Tournament #, $200+$15 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200)
Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: (5035 in chips)
Seat 6: Me (4897 in chips)
Seat 7: (3568 in chips)
Seat 7: posts small blind 100
Seat 1: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to sportingimag [Jc Kh]
sportingimag: raises 400 to 600
Seat 7: calls 500 - When he flat called button raises from SB he had folded about 2/3rds of the time to c-bets.
Seat 1: calls 400 - unusual for him to flat call in this spot. He had shoved in spots like this earlier.
*** FLOP *** [7d 8h 2s] - Pot = 1,800
Both players check
My action???? How much??? Why???
IMO, it is and obvious c-bet if only one caller pf.

Hand 2

PokerStars Game #Tournament #, $200+$15 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200)
Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: (6135 in chips)
Seat 6: Me (3997 in chips)
Seat 7: (3368 in chips)
Seat 7: posts small blind 100
Seat 1: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to sportingimag [Kd Jd]
sportingimag: raises 400 to 600
Seat 7: calls 500
Seat 1: folds
*** FLOP *** [As 2h 9s] - Pot = 1,300
Seat 7: checks (remaining stack is 2,768)
My stack is 3,397
My action???? How much??? Why???

I don't think that I let the bubble effect my play, but I may have. If I had a tight image then I think both of these situations would have been automatic c-bets. Given that I had a pretty loose image from the button, what would be your play in both situations?

I haven't played any cash games since the middle of last week thanks to trying to focus more on the BBT, WSOP sats, and the WSOP steps. I had forgotten how frustrating they can be. Most of that frustration is just a product of the end game SNG play or a low M late/middle stage MTT play. There are so many more times where you are getting all in with the worst or marginally best hands in SNGs/MTTs than in cash games thanks to deep stack vs. short stack play. When you have to get into the push/fold mode, there are obviously going to be times where you get in way behind or way ahead. I have been sucked out on a ton, but have also had my fair share of suckouts. I'm sure it is probably an equal mix, but it always feels like it is more heavily weighted to the getting sucked out on side. I'm not sure how SNG grinders don't go crazy. I guess it takes a certain mentality to be a good SNG grinder and avoid tilt.

I'm liking the new T$ on FTP. I didn't play many sats to the Sunday tourneys in the past because I can't usually play on Sunday. This weekend, I played a bunch of sats to the Sunday $216 because now you can unregister and receive the entry in T$. It looks like some people only play sats. I checked the satellite leaderboard for the FTP $750k mistakingly thinking that my 7 or 8 wins would be close to the top. There were about 10-12 people with more wins including a couple of guys that had won 20+ sats.

I think that I finished 3rd in a WSOP step about 6-7 times this weekend which meant repeating the current step - talk about frustrating. I currently have a couple of Step 2s, one Step 1, and one Step 4 remaining from my initial $95 worth of Step 1s. I have played Step 4 three times and finished 3rd or 4th all three times.

One of the biggest differences between MTTs/SNGs and cash games is when/how often to make continuation bets.

In cash games, there are a lot of times where you might make a -EV continuation bet because it will set you up for a greater +EV situation later. Also, in some more aggressive cash games, you will get picked apart by floaters both in and out of position if you aren't cont. betting enough or firing another barrel on the turn. This same play in a MTT or SNG might cost way too large a percentage of your stack to be long term +EV.

Continuation bets seem like much more of a science in MTTs/SNGs, especially in the mid-late stages. There are so many more variables that go into whether or not to make a continuation bet in a MTT or a SNG - stack sizes, your M, your opponent's M, your image, your view of how your opponent will react, what size continuation bet to make, whether your c-bet should be a shove, what you will do if he/she shoves/reraises you, what happened last time you c-bet, what you will do on the turn if he/she just flat called your c-bet, etc, etc. The line between c-betting and not c-betting is often a grey blurry line. I can see why a lot of good SNG grinders advocate pushing/folding pre-flop even with decent sized stacks. Once you raise pre-flop and c-bet, you will often find yourself committed and you might as well get some added fold equity by putting the decision on your opponent.

I'm going to try to go through some SNG/MTT hands this week a find a few examples of marginal c-bet situations to get thoughts from other people on what is the most optimal play. I think that it is one of the areas of my SNG and MTT game that needs work. I haven't used any ICM programs, but I'm thinking about looking at what is the most +EV play in certain marginal c-bet situations and an ICM program combined with pokerstove will probably prove invaluable.

Anyone know of a good ICM programs to download? Any other software recommendations? Any good articles out there on the subject? (FWIW, I am currently reading the Mathematics of Poker. I think that might help with some of the calcs.)