Poker Ramblings of cmitch

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The SB had been playing a ton of hands. He hadn't won any significant pots in a while and seemed frustrated often making big bets into pots. Most of the time his big bets were met by folds, but I had seen him lead with a big bet and fold to a re-raise.

What do you do when he donk bets the flop?

Full Tilt Poker MiniFTOPS Event #12 $109 (antes from the start) No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t30/t60 Blinds + t7ante - 9 players

The Official Hand History Converter

UTG: t5586
UTG+1: t6265
UTG+2: t7350
Hero (MP1): t5965
MP2: t3921
CO: t5477
BTN: t7879
SB: t3224
BB: t5149

Pre Flop: (t153) Hero is MP1 with J of hearts J of clubs

3 folds
Hero raises to t180
3 folds, SB calls t150
1 fold

Flop: (t483) 5 of clubs 3 of diamonds 8 of clubs (2 players)

SB bets t540
cmitch ?????

What is your action?

a. Call. Why? Plan for rest of hand?
b. Fold. Why?
c. Raise. Why? How much? Plan for rest of hand?

12 responses to "MTT - Flop Decision?"

  1. Call - is gross. Two club board, and inside & open ended straight draws out there, I don't think a call is in order. He's been playing a lot of pots; without knowing details, I'm assuming his range includes suits & connectors. He may be on a flush draw or straight draw. Obviously, the worst case is 2c4c or 6c4c, but let's discount that.

    Fold - If you put him on an OESFD, then fold is the way to go. I'm not putting him on that. I have him on a FD, SD or A8.

    Raise - My selection! If he's going to donk bet, raise it 2x to ~1500 to take his odds away. You have him covered by almost 2x. I'm betting he's looking to double up or go home. Raise Raise Raise. Aggression is always key.

    The Poker Meister

  2. Oh yeah - and the plan is this: You take control of the hand at this point. The next [safe non-club, straight] card turns, and he will check into you. You can value bet again, and he will either drop it or shove, in which case you are likely ahead.

    The Poker Meister

  3. I probably raise 3xs, and if he shoves, I fold. YOu've told me he will fold to a big raise if he has nothing, and a lot of speculative hands beat you here. He may have 9-9 or 10-10, but it's more likely he flopped a set, two pair or even a huge draw with this hand. I'm not comfortable with a medium pair in that spot.

    If he in fact shoved a lot I would call but I don't think he does that from what you've said.


  4. autoshove and hope he doesnt suckout


  5. d. Punch him


  6. Either raise 3x and call or just push. It's basically the same thing, so I'd probably push and pray he doesn't suckout like fuel said.


  7. "pokerpeaker said...
    I probably raise 3xs, and if he shoves, I fold. "

    I just did a roughly estimate but he has around 2550 left, meaning if he shoves to your 3x of 1500 it's 1000 to call into a pot of almost 5000. There's no way you can fold an overpair on such a draw heavy board against a LAG with this odds.

    Since I have him well covered I think I like to put him to a decision for all his chips. So he likes to do donk bets? Let him taste his own medicine then! I say he's on a draw or has overcards most of the time so he'll probably fold mostly or do a bad call (leaving aside straight flush draws - no need for monster under the bed)

    If he has a set... I would expect him to check or make a smaller bet then. But you'll never know. The other week I called a 3xx raise from button with AT. Flop came AT5 rainbow and opponent goes all-in (about 3x the pot size) I called of course, believing he had Ace-rags or perhaps JJ - only to find he had trip fives! Still not sure if he made a good play (besides from the fact that it obviously fooled med) or was just an idiot with great luck.


  8. Fold.

    I think he has Queens+

    Actually, I think he has exactly QQ here.


  9. Why QQ? Why just flat call PF when about 35% of the time an overcard will come on the flop and give him a though decision. And if he slowplayed, why didn't he continue this line on the flop in order to extract at least some more value from you by checking and inducing a c-bet?

    To fold JJ here would be very bad poker IMO. If we have an overpair to the board we must at least call in this situation.


  10. I don`t understand why everybody puts SB on a draw or a good hand. The flop is a flop a preflop raiser would not hit very often, there for the donk bet can be a complete bluff.

    His range is much bigger than a draw or a pocket pair. On a board as this no one will bet a set or a high pocket pair that much.

    So in my opinion you have the best hand about 90% of the time and u should make a nice bet (about 1600) and call any shove.


  11. Devil's advocate here:

    Maybe it's too weak/too smallball, but what's wrong with using position, flatting, and reevaluating on the turn?

    I guess it's all about reads. Would he be smart enough to donk lead and bomb the pot with a big draw/hand here? If so, then he's jamming to your reraise and you're going to get it in for 50 BB flipping at best.

    If he's a aggro muppet just trying to blow you off AK, because EVERYONE has AK when they raise preflop, why cut him off now by raising the flop? Let him hang himself on the turn when he whiffs and donks again with his club draw or 8x. Sure, you take the chance of letting him catch up, but maybe with this player that's not such a bad thing.

    I just get the feeling that if you raise/shove this flop, he's never going to come correct with something you crush like TT/99, or spew with 98/77, but he'll have some donk two pair/trappy AA/KK/QQ/or Ac3c type of hand.

    If we prefer to play JJ fast here, be prepared for a ton of variance.


  12. he has AA.

    dave b