Hand Results and Another How Would You Play it?
Thursday, September 06, 2007OK. Yesterday's hand was pretty simple. I am ahead of most hands like overpairs (55/45) and only a small dog to a set (40%/60%). I didn't think that The Sweeper had a strong enough hand to get all in with, but cornellxc1 had shown obvious strength and I had to figure that his range was a set, overpair, or outside shot that he was on the nut flush draw.
Please, correct me in the comments if you see an error in my calcs. I think that I have his range correct, but welcome any thoughts to the contrary.
40% of his hands = overpair (55/45 favorite)
40% of his hands = set (40/60 dog)
10% of his hands = straight draw (prob smaller % but assuming 10% for calcs) (57/43 favorite)
10% of his hands = nut flush draw (36/64 dog)
40% x 55% = 22%
40% x 40% = 16%
10% x 57% = 5.7%
10% x 36% = 3.6%
Assuming the above is his range, I am about a 47/53 underdog - close to a coin flip.
There is $52 in the pot preflop plus assuming $30 of dead money in the pot from The Sweeper, so $82 before cornell's raise. I am working under the assumption that sweeper is folding and cornell will either call an all-in or bet enough on the turn to put me all in if I flat call. So, I am getting $431+$82 = $513 to $431 on money. I was definitely getting the right odds against his range and raised enough to commit myself/show that I was committed. I lost the race.
I think that the calculation also shows why the hand has to be played a little more cautiously when deep stacked as noted by several of the comments on my last post.
FullTiltPoker Game #3443703565: Table Tuscarora (6 max) - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:33:14 ET - 2007/09/02
Seat 1: joker514 ($150)
Seat 3: The Sweeper ($2,267.25)
Seat 4: cornellxc1 ($765.10)
Seat 5: gimmeurblinds ($119.10)
Seat 6: cmitch ($445.10)
joker514 posts the small blind of $2
The Sweeper posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to cmitch [8d 7d]
therouf adds $200
cornellxc1 raises to $14
gimmeurblinds folds
cmitch calls $14
joker514 has 15 seconds left to act
joker514 calls $12
The Sweeper calls $10
*** FLOP *** [9s Td 2d]
joker514 checks
The Sweeper bets $30
cornellxc1 has 15 seconds left to act
cornellxc1 raises to $100
cmitch raises to $300
joker514 folds
The Sweeper folds
cornellxc1 raises to $751.10, and is all in
cmitch calls $131.10, and is all in
cornellxc1 shows [2c 2s]
cmitch shows [8d 7d]
Uncalled bet of $320 returned to cornellxc1
*** TURN *** [9s Td 2d] [4c]
*** RIVER *** [9s Td 2d 4c] [8h]
cornellxc1 shows three of a kind, Twos
cmitch shows a pair of Eights
cornellxc1 wins the pot ($945.20) with three of a kind, Twos
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $948.20 | Rake $3
Board: [9s Td 2d 4c 8h]
Seat 1: joker514 (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 3: The Sweeper (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 4: cornellxc1 showed [2c 2s] and won ($945.20) with three of a kind, Twos
Seat 5: gimmeurblinds didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: cmitch (button) showed [8d 7d] and lost with a pair of Eights
--------------------------------
I guess I shouldn't play 78 (suited or not) any more. The next hand took place at the same table earlier in the session.
The Sweeper (34/20/2.5 over 700+ hands) appears to be pretty loose. This is early in the session and most of the stats are mined.
FullTiltPoker Game #3442996262: Table Tuscarora (6 max) - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:21:49 ET - 2007/09/02
Seat 1: cornellxc1 ($32)
Seat 2: MagicRock ($735)
Seat 3: The Sweeper ($1,478.05)
Seat 4: jballer88 ($429.40)
Seat 5: Q1Tower ($424)
Seat 6: cmitch ($398)
cornellxc1 posts the small blind of $2
MagicRock has 5 seconds left to act
MagicRock posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to cmitch [8d 7h]
The Sweeper raises to $8
jballer88 folds
Q1Tower folds
cmitch calls $8 (forget about flat calling with 78o on the button - I'm sure the case could be made for folding preflop.)
cornellxc1 folds
MagicRock calls $4
*** FLOP *** [5h 6h 4h]
MagicRock checks
The Sweeper checks
cmitch bets $20
MagicRock folds
The Sweeper raises to $60
cmitch calls $40 (thoughts on the flat call here????)
*** TURN *** [5h 6h 4h] [Td]
The Sweeper has 15 seconds left to act
The Sweeper bets $120
cmitch??????
Yuk. What to do now?
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